US President Joe Biden’s 2020 campaign was built on a promise to restore normalcy after the chaotic Trump years.
As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, the question of who the “chaos candidate” might be is becoming a growing concern, Piper Sandler analysts said in a Thursday note.
Former President Donald Trump remains a controversial figure. Despite his legal troubles, Trump still has a significant following, and polls show he is no longer the undisputed chaos candidate.
Meanwhile, voters’ perception of President Biden’s age and abilities is another crucial factor. A Harvard-Harris poll found that 59% of voters believe Biden’s “age, failing memory or impaired concentration” make him re-elected “potentially dangerous for the country.”
Additionally, 63% believe Biden’s public missteps are becoming more common, raising concerns about his ability to complete a second term without a disruptive transition due to health concerns.
There is a widespread belief among voters that Biden is not significantly better than Trump on ethical or legal matters. While voters are narrowly convinced that Trump is guilty of crimes, they also suspect the accusations are politically motivated.
Meanwhile, Hunter Biden’s upcoming trial and allegations that Joe Biden is involved in his son’s business dealings further complicate the ethical landscape for the president.
Polls show voters trust Trump over Biden to tackle the major challenges facing the country, from international chaos to domestic issues such as inflation, which has made daily life more difficult for many Americans.
“There is chaos around the world, at our southern border and on our college campuses — and by wide margins, voters are trusting Trump over Biden to tackle nearly all the major challenges facing the country,” Piper Sandler analysts wrote.
“The spike in inflation may not fit a narrow definition of chaos, but it makes it much harder for average voters to make ends meet on a day-to-day basis. The blame lies squarely with Biden,” they added.
The perception of both candidates is a mix of distrust and concern, making it difficult to pinpoint a single ‘chaos candidate’. However, the looming lawsuits and lingering ethical questions surrounding both Biden and Trump imply that chaos could ensue from both sides depending on how these issues unfold.
Perhaps most importantly, Biden’s position on the issue of protecting democracy, which Democrats want to put at the center of their campaign, is not as strong as they might hope. In key swing states, Biden and Trump are virtually tied on this issue, suggesting there is no clear advantage for the incumbent president.
