With the 2024 US presidential election approaching, analysts are actively debating the possible outcomes, especially how a second term for Donald Trump might unfold.
The JPMorgan team believes that a second Trump administration would bring significant changes in several policy areas, from foreign relations to domestic regulations.
One of the most significant shifts under a Trump 2.0 administration would be a tougher stance on foreign policy, especially toward China. In its note, JPMorgan emphasizes that Trump’s approach would be driven by the belief that “America must win and dominate,” which would likely result in a more aggressive use of Executive Orders regarding trade and investment.
At the same time, the second term could also “result in a more contentious relationship between the US and the European Union, with negative consequences for Ukraine,” the bank’s team pointed out.
Environmental policy would also see a rollback, the note said. Trump is expected to roll back many of the clean energy initiatives implemented by the Biden administration and instead focus on easing regulatory burdens on oil and gas companies.
“However, we see no structural changes to our expectations for either U.S. oil or manufacturing production during the next presidential term, regardless of who is in the White House,” JPMorgan added.
Domestically, Trump’s administration would likely be made up of experienced politicians and loyalists, unlike some of the more unconventional choices during his first term. This could lead to a more streamlined and potentially more market-friendly approach to governance.
Economic policy under Trump 2.0 would emphasize tax cuts and deregulation. The focus would be on further cutting corporate taxes, reducing regulatory burden and possibly introducing a new Federal Reserve chairman who supports negative interest rate policy (NIRP).
Meanwhile, the infrastructure sector could see continued investment, especially in 5G and traditional infrastructure projects. JPMorgan believes the Trump administration would show more support for sectors such as aerospace, defense, airlines and financial services.
Analysts said Trump remains focused on his Make America Great Again (MAGA) base, using social media extensively for campaigning and political messaging. Abortion remains a “stimulating issue, but both parties may have overplayed their hands in the way they addressed it during the campaign,” they wrote.
At the same time, Gen Z remains a large voting bloc but is also “disillusioned, raising questions about electoral turnout and requiring specific policy calls.”
Overall, the 2024 elections are expected to be highly competitive, with close races in several key battleground states. Current polls show Trump leading in critical states such as Arizona, Georgia and Michigan, even if the margins are small.
“The outcome of the 2024 US presidential election will come down to just thousands of votes in a few crucial swing states, mirroring the close results of 2016 and 2020,” the JPMorgan note said.