By Gloria Dickie
TORONTO (Reuters) – Current climate policies will result in global warming of more than 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century, according to a United Nations report on Thursday, more than double the increase that was agreed upon almost a decade ago.
The annual Emissions Gap report, which takes stock of countries’ pledges to tackle climate change against what is needed, finds that the world could face as much as 3.1°C by 2100 (5, 6 F) warming above pre-industrial levels if governments do not take more action to reduce global warming emissions.
Governments signed the Paris Agreement and a 1.5 degrees Celsius warming ceiling in 2015 to avoid a cascade of dangerous consequences.
“We are teetering on a planetary tight rope,” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a speech on Thursday. “Either leaders close the emissions gap, or we plunge headlong into climate disaster.”
Global greenhouse gas emissions increased by 1.3% between 2022 and 2023 to a new record of 57.1 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, the report said.
Current pledges to take future action would still see temperatures rise between 2.6 C (4.7 F) and 2.8 C (5 F) by 2100, the report found. This is in line with the findings of the past three years.
“When we look at progress towards the 2030 targets, especially from G20 member states… they have not made much progress towards their current 2030 climate targets,” said Anne Olhoff, chief scientific editor of the report .
The world has currently warmed by about 1.3 C (2.3 F).
Nations will meet next month at the annual United Nations Climate Summit (COP29) in Azerbaijan, where they will work to build on a deal struck last year to transition away from fossil fuels.
The negotiations in Baku will help shape each country’s updated emissions reduction strategy, known as a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), due in February 2025.
The report suggests that countries must collectively commit to and implement a 42% reduction in annual greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, and achieve a 57% reduction by 2035 if they are to have any hope of averting global warming. above 1.5 degrees Celsius – a target now considered likely unattainable.
Inger Andersen, executive director of the United Nations Environment Programme, urged countries to use the Baku talks to increase action in their NDCs. “Every fraction of a degree avoided counts,” she said.
