By Forrest Crellin
PARIS (Reuters) – Global electricity demand is expected to grow at the fastest pace in almost two decades this year, boosted by rising demand for air conditioning as temperatures rise, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report on Friday.
The trend, expected to continue into 2025, will support the continued use of coal energy even as renewable energy production increases, it predicted.
Increased air-conditioning use is expected to remain the main driver of demand growth, after a year of record global temperatures and intense heat waves that pushed power grids to maintain a reliable but dirtier baseload supply from sources like coal.
“Growth in global electricity demand this year and next is expected to be among the fastest in the past two decades, highlighting the growing role of electricity in our economies as well as the consequences of severe heat waves,” said Keisuke Sadamori, Director of Energy at the IEA. Markets and security.
The rising demand for electricity driven by artificial intelligence (AI) is also drawing attention to data center demand patterns, raising questions about deployment, demand forecasting and energy efficiency, among others, the IEA said.
Global electricity consumption is expected to grow by around 4% in 2024, which would be the largest growth rate since 2007, with the trend expected to continue at the same pace in 2025, compared to a 2.5% increase in demand in 2023, according to IEA data. .
India is expected to lead the way in demand growth in the coming year, with around 8% in 2024, while China is expected to post a growth rate of 6% over the year, down 1% from by 2023 as China’s economy continues to restructure, IEA data show. .
The European Union is expected to recover from two years of contraction with growth of 1.7%, but uncertainty remains over how this pace will continue, while the United States should also bounce back by 3% after a decrease in 2023 due to mild weather conditions.
Renewable energy production is also expected to increase in the coming years, with the source’s total share of global supply reaching 35% in 2025, an increase of 5% compared to 2023, with solar and wind energy expected to will go beyond the share of hydropower in the global mix.
Total renewable energy generation is also expected to overtake electricity production from coal by 2025, but the more polluting energy source is expected to remain resilient and add less than 1% in 2024, depending on hydropower production, especially in China.
As a result, CO2 emissions from the global energy sector are stagnating, with modest growth expected this year before falling again in 2025, the IEA said.
