Donald Trump is still a “slight favorite” for the upcoming 2024 US presidential election, analysts at Piper Sandler said on Thursday. The former president is leading in the polls, though his margin is slim nationally and in crucial Midwestern states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
“The chances of a comfortable Biden victory (and a Democratic Senate, which was always a reach) have diminished,” Piper Sandler wrote. “The House will probably go to the party that wins the White House.”
According to analysts, the 2024 elections are seen as having a significant impact on financial markets because both candidates “pose an arsenal of risks to financial markets, both tangible and intangible.”
Unlike the recent elections, the biggest concerns for investors are macroeconomic. These include a potential reversal of decades of trade liberalization, increased geopolitical risks and instability, unsustainable fiscal policies, and substantial potential fluctuations in taxes, regulations, and immigration.
“Investors are focused on possible tariffs and the fate of the IRA’s green subsidies. Financial, healthcare, energy, defense, industrial and other sectors also have a significant impact on the outcome,” the Piper Sandler team said.
As for intangible risks, analysts emphasized that one candidate is “temperamentally unfit to serve” while the other is “physically unfit.”
“Both pose a threat to the rule of law, radicalize their own party and the opposition, have legal and ethical problems, are considered illegitimate by half the country, have no desire to convince the country and are too unpopular to be heard “, the spokesperson said. said investment bank.
The company’s election odds currently stand at 60% for the Republican Party winning the White House, 55% for capturing the House of Representatives and 85% for securing the Senate.
On specific issues, the report highlights several areas where Trump is believed to have an edge over Biden. These include the economy, immigration, inflation, and America’s position in the world.
According to a CNN poll conducted in late April 2024, Trump leads Biden by 14 points on handling the economy and by 17 points on immigration. The former American president is also viewed more favorably in areas such as inflation, the war between Israel and Hamas, and crime and security.
On the other hand, Biden leads Trump on issues such as access to abortion and health care.
