By Rahul Paswan and Kavya Balaraman
(Reuters) -Oil prices will not change much in the second half of 2024 as concerns about demand from China and the prospects of increased supply from key producers counter risks from geopolitical tensions, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.
A poll of 44 analysts and economists polled by Reuters over the past two weeks predicted the global benchmark would average $83.93 a barrel in 2024, just below the consensus of $84.01 in the previous month’s poll.
The average 2024 forecast of $79.72 was slightly above the May poll result of $79.56.
Brent crude futures have averaged $83.4 so far in 2024 after brief highs as high as $92.18, driven by supply risks from the conflict in the Middle East. [O/R]
“Aside from the noise, oil prices appear to be stuck in a sideways trend,” with supply and demand providing little direction and storage levels hovering well within seasonal norms, said Julius Baer analyst Norbert Rücker.
However, a few analysts said prices could rise to the $90 mark and possibly even above, depending on a variety of factors, including summer consumption, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and production cuts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Analysts expect oil demand to grow by between 0.99 and 1.4 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2024, slightly above the 0.96 mbpd forecast from the Paris-based International Energy Agency.
On the supply side, meanwhile, most analysts noted that crude production from non-OPEC countries is rising.
If OPEC+ continues to phase out current production cuts starting in October, the market could move to a small surplus by the end of 2025, said William Weatherburn, an analyst at Capital Economics.
Earlier this month, OPEC and allies led by Russia, known as OPEC+, opted to slowly phase out production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day over the course of a year starting in October, while continuing to cut production another 3.66 million barrels per day are extended until the end of 2025.
