By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK (Reuters) -Oil prices fell about 1% in volatile trading on Thursday after reports that the U.S. and Israel will try to restart talks on a possible ceasefire in Gaza.
Brent futures settled 58 cents, or 0.8%, lower at $74.38 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) fell 58 cents, or 0.8%, to end at $70.19.
Earlier in the session, both benchmarks rose more than $1 a barrel on concerns that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could lead to oil supply disruptions and uncertainty ahead of the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election.
“(The) energy complex continues to zigzag as the risk premium for the Middle East expands and contracts almost daily,” analysts at energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.
After Iran fired missiles at Israel on October 1, yields rose about 8% in the week ending October 4 on concerns that Israel would attack Iran’s oil infrastructure. It fell about 8% in the week ending Oct. 18 on reports that Israel would not hit energy infrastructure, easing fears of supply disruptions.
Iran is a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and produced about 4 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) in 2023, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration.
Iran was on track to export about 1.5 million barrels per day in 2024, up from an estimated 1.4 million barrels per day in 2023, according to analysts and U.S. government reports.
Iran supports several groups fighting Israel, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen.
With the US presidential election fast approaching, which could change America’s Middle East and oil policies, President Joe Biden’s administration continued to push for peace between Israel, Hezbollah and Hamas.
“(Former President Donald) Trump is leading (Vice President Kamala) Harris based on current betting market data and Trump has proposed making the US a major oil supplier,” said OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong, adding that a such a move could push prices down.
While betting markets have Trump ahead, other polls show the result is too close to call.
QUESTION CONCERNS
In Europe, eurozone business activity stagnated again this month and remained in contraction territory as domestic and international demand fell despite companies barely raising prices, a survey showed on Thursday.
In Britain, optimism among British businesses has sunk, according to two surveys published Thursday, six days before Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves tries to chart a path between raising taxes and boosting growth in the first budget of the new government.
In the US, new claims for US unemployment aid fell unexpectedly last week, but the number of people receiving benefits in mid-October was the highest in almost three years, suggesting that those losing their jobs are finding it increasingly difficult to get a job. to get a new job.
