By Natalie Grover
LONDON (Reuters) – The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday cut its forecast for oil demand growth in 2024, widening the gap between the company and oil producer group OPEC on the outlook for global oil demand this year has been enlarged.
The Paris-based energy watchdog cut its growth outlook for this year by 140,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd), largely citing weak demand in developed OECD countries.
Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Tuesday stuck to its forecast that global oil demand will rise by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024.
The significant difference between the two forecasts is partly due to different views on the pace of the global transition to cleaner fuels.
The IEA said in its monthly oil report that the lower forecast for oil demand in 2024 is linked to poor industrial activity and a mild winter that is undermining gas oil consumption, especially in Europe, where a declining share of diesel cars was already undermining consumption.
“Combined with weak diesel supplies in the United States at the start of the year, this was enough to cause OECD oil demand to contract again in the first quarter,” the IEA said.
The IEA’s 2025 oil growth forecast of 1.2 million barrels per day – slightly higher than the previous estimate – is now marginally higher than this year’s projection.
OPEC estimates oil demand growth for next year at 1.85 million barrels per day.
