(Reuters) – Goldman Sachs said on Thursday that whoever wins the U.S. presidential election in November will have limited resources to significantly increase domestic oil supplies next year.
Strategic oil reserves are low and an easing of regulations could only significantly increase long-term supply in the US, the bank said in a client note.
Oil prices rose slightly on Friday after the release of US economic data that beat analyst expectations, raising investor expectations for stronger demand for crude from the world’s largest energy consumer.
The September futures contract was trading around $82 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate crude for September was around $78. [O/R]
Goldman Sachs expects Brent prices to range from $75 to $90 by 2025, assuming trend gross domestic product (GDP) growth and steady oil demand, as well as market equilibrium by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and member companies .
“While there is a lot of uncertainty about trade policy, tariffs seem unlikely.”
Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to take a hit of as much as $11 per barrel next year due to weaker demand and GDP, in a scenario where the US imposes a 10% across-the-board tariff on imports of goods.
However, the rates could impact oil prices by as much as $19 if the Federal Reserve delays rate cuts until after 2025 due to higher core inflation, with Brent reaching $62 in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to a current forecast of $81, the bank said. said.
