(Reuters) – President-elect Donald Trump on Monday pledged tariffs on the United States’ three largest trading partners: Canada, Mexico and China. The proposed tariffs would affect a wide range of industries, including oil, agriculture and manufacturing, potentially changing long-standing trade patterns and supply chains.
These are the raw materials and energy sectors that could be affected:
OIL
Canada exported about $177.19 billion worth of energy products to the United States in 2023, according to government data.
Crude oil imports from Canada make up more than a fifth of all oil processed by U.S. refineries. About 70% of imported Canadian barrels go to U.S. Midwestern refineries that supply an area that includes Chicago and Detroit.
Many of those Midwestern refineries are geared to process heavier oil and would either struggle to find a direct substitute for Canadian oil or have to pay a higher price if that oil is subject to tariffs. That could drive up fuel costs in the Midwest.
The US imported about 5.2 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products per day from Canada and Mexico in 2024, including more than 4 million barrels per day from Canada, US Department of Energy data show.
According to the Canada Energy Regulator, Canadian exports to the United States exceeded $110 billion in 2023.
GAS
The U.S. imported approximately 8.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of natural gas from Canada and Mexico during the first eight months of 2024, according to the latest available data from the EIA.
Total (EPA:) According to data from the Canada Energy Regulator, natural gas exports amounted to approximately $6 billion in 2023.
Most of this year’s gas imports – about 8.4 bcfd – came via pipelines from Canada. That compares with an annual average of 8.0 bcfd of gas imports from Canada in 2023 and an average of 7.6 bcfd over the past five years (2018-2022).
The remaining approximately 0.1 bcfd of gas imports so far this year came from pipelines from Mexico, liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Canada and Trinidad and Tobago, and compressed natural gas (CNG) from Canada.
The US, meanwhile, exported about 20.8 bcfd of gas in the first eight months of 2024, including about 2.7 bcfd via pipeline to Canada, 6.4 bcfd via pipeline to Mexico and about 11.7 bcfd via LNG to various countries. MER.
The value of those U.S. gas exports during the first eight months was about $11.0 billion, according to Reuters calculations using the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark as the spot price of the gas.
AGRICULTURE
The U.S. imported $40.1 billion worth of Canadian agricultural products last year, making Canada the second-largest source of U.S. agricultural imports after Mexico, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data.
The United States imported nearly $3 billion in Canadian beef, $1.1 billion in pork and another $2 billion in live animals last year as part of an integrated, cross-border livestock and processing industry.
Canada also supplies the United States with nearly half of its imports of vegetable oils, timber and other forest products.
In 2023, the US imported $45.4 billion worth of agricultural products from Mexico.
According to the USDA, about two-thirds of all U.S. vegetable imports and half of fruit and nut imports come from Mexico: nearly 90% of avocados, as much as 35% of orange juice and 20% of strawberries.
U.S. imports of Mexican tequila and mezcal — both used to make cocktails such as margaritas — totaled $4.66 billion in 2023, up 160% since 2019.
Each year, Mexico exports more than 1 million cows across the border to become part of the U.S. beef supply.
SUGAR
The US imported 521,000 short tons of sugar from Mexico in the 2023/24 season (October-September), under a bilateral trade deal that reduces import taxes on sugar from Mexico. It was nearly 15% of all U.S. sugar imports of 3.76 million short tons last season.
POTASH
According to USDA data, the U.S. imported about 13 million tons of potash last year, 85% of which came from Canada.
