(Reuters) – Brokers have raised their year-end targets for the U.S. stock benchmark, spurred by expectations of a “soft landing” for the economy and growing chances that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.
Below are forecasts from some major banks on economic growth, inflation and how they expect certain asset classes to perform:
Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:
S&P 500 US 10 years
intended yield
goal
Goldman Sachs 5,200 4.00% 1.12 145 7.05
Morgan Stanley 4,500 1,140 7.5
UBS Worldwide 5,200 3.85% 1.09 148 7.25
Wealth
Management*
Wells Fargo 5,100-5,300 4.25-4.75% 1.06-1.10 156-160
Investment
Institute
Barclays 5,300 4.25% 1.09 145 7.20
JPMorgan 4,200 3.75% 1.13 146 7.25
BofA Global 5,400 4.25% 1.12 155 7.45
Research
Deutsche Bank 5,500 135
4.60% 1.07
Citigroup 5,100 4.30% 1.02 135 7.25
HSBC 5,400 3.00% 1.05 145 7.10
Oppenheimer
5,500
UBS Worldwide 7.15
Research* 5,600 4.0% 1.05 160
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are separate, independent divisions within the UBS Group
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American inflation
US consumer prices were unexpectedly unchanged in May due to cheaper gasoline, but inflation is likely to remain too high for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates before September amid a continued strong labor market.
US inflation (annual Y/Y for 2024)
Main CPI Core PCE
Goldman Sachs 2.50% 2.5%
Morgan Stanley 2.10% 2.70%
Wells Fargo 3.0% 2.60%
Investment
Institute
Barclays 2.70% 2.4%
JPMorgan 2.50% 2.50%
BofA Worldwide 3.5% 2.8%
Research
German Bank
3.10%
Citi Group 2.0% 3.0%
HSBC 3.4%
—–
Real GDP growth forecasts for 2024
GLOBAL US CHINA EURO UK INDIA
AREA
Goldman 5.0% 6.6%
Business 0.8%
2.7% 2.6% 0.9%
Morgan 2.8% 1.9% 4.2% 0.5% -0.1% 6.4%
Stanley
UBS worldwide 3.1% 2.4% 4.9% 0.6% 0.2% 7.0%
Wealth
Management*
Barclays 2.6% 1.2% 4.4% 0.3% 0.1% 6.2%
JPMorgan 2.2% 1.6% 5.2% 0.4% 0.3% 5.7%
BofA Worldwide 3.0% 2.5% 5.0% 0.6% 0.3% 5.8%
Research
2.4% 5.2% 0.9% 0.8% 7.0%
German
Bank 3.2%
Citigroup 1.9% 1.0% 4.6% -0.2% 0.1% 6.3%
HSBC 2.6% 2.3% 4.9% 0.5% 0.4% 6.3%
UBS worldwide 3.1% 2.3% 4.9% 0.6% 0.2% 7.0%
Research*
