By Alex Lawler and Yousef Saba
LONDON (Reuters) – OPEC+ oil producers will meet on June 2 to decide their next steps on production policy, including whether to extend voluntary production cuts totaling about 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) , which expire in the first half of 2024.
These voluntary cuts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, come on top of previous cuts of 3.66 million barrels per day announced in stages since the end of 2022 and lasting until the end of 2024.
Total pledged cuts therefore currently stand at 5.86 million barrels per day, equivalent to about 5.7% of daily global demand, according to Reuters calculations.
What are the latest cuts?
The latest round of voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day was announced by individual countries on November 30, 2023.
Initially in place for the first quarter of 2024, countries extended it in March until the end of June and Russia slightly adjusted how the cut would be implemented.
Included in the 2.2 million barrels per day is an extension of existing Saudi and Russian voluntary cuts by 1.3 million barrels per day from 2023, meaning the latest element of the cut is around 900,000 barrels per day.
WHAT WERE THE PREVIOUS CUTS?
Before November 2023, OPEC+ implemented production cuts of approximately 5 million barrels per day, consisting of 1.3 million barrels per day of Saudi and Russian voluntary cuts implemented earlier in 2023, and 3.66 million barrels per day implemented in previous steps had agreed.
Of the 3.66 million barrels per day, 2 million barrels per day was agreed by OPEC+ at the end of 2022, and several members agreed to voluntary cuts of 1.66 million barrels per day in April 2023.
When OPEC+ met in June 2023, it extended cuts of 3.66 million barrels per day until the end of 2024.
HOW DO OUTPUT SAVINGS AFFECT THE OBJECTIVES?
The following table shows OPEC+’s promised cuts and production targets for the first half of 2024 in millions of barrels per day, based on information from OPEC, individual countries and Reuters calculations.
Totals have been rounded.
Actual output
Country H1 2024 Implied H1 production (April 2024)*
voluntary target for 2024 n
cuts promised targets after the first half of the year
2024
0.91
Algeria 0.051 0.908 0.959
Congo
0.000 0.277 0.277 0.26
0.05
Equatorial Guinea 0.000 0.070 0.070
Gabon 0.21
0.000 0.169 0.169
Iraq 4.24
0.220 4.009 4.22
Kuwait 2.49
0.135 2.413 2.548
Nigeria 0.000 1.500 1.500 1.28
Saudi Arabia 9.03
Arabia 1,000 8,978 9,978
UAE 3.15
0.163 2.912 3.075
0.48
Azerbaijan 0.000 0.551 0.551
1.59
Kazakhstan 0.082 1.468 1.55
Mexico1.6
0.000 1.753 1.753
Oman 0.76
0.042 0.759 0.801
9.3
Russia** 0.500 8.949 9.449
0 0.73
Bahrain*** 0.196 0.196
Brunei 0
0.083 0.083
0
Malaysia 0.401 0.401
South 0
Sudan 0.124 0.124
Sudan 0
0.064 0.064
Total 21.62
OPEC-9 1,569 21,236 22,796
Total 14.46
Non-OPEC 0.624 14.348 14.972
Total
OPEC+ 2.2 35.60 37.80 36.08
* International Energy Agency figures exclude OPEC members Iran, Libya and Venezuela, which are exempt from cuts
** Russia initially pledged to deepen cuts in oil and oil products exports by 500,000 barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024. In March, Russia said it would cut output and exports by 471,000 barrels per day in April-June. The table is calculated based on the original figure
*** Figure is total for Bahrain, Brunei, Malaysia, Sudan and South Sudan
