By Samia Nakhoul, Parisa Hafezi and Pesha Magid
DUBAI (Reuters) – Gulf states are lobbying Washington to stop Israel from attacking Iran’s oil sites because they fear their own oil facilities could come under fire from Tehran’s allies if the conflict escalates, three Gulf sources told Reuters .
As part of their efforts to avoid being caught in the crossfire, Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, are also refusing to allow Israel to fly over their airspace for any attack on Iran and have told Washington, the three sources, passed on. close to government circles.
Israel has vowed that Iran will pay for its missile attack last week, while Tehran has said any retaliation would be met with massive destruction, raising fears of a broader war in the region that could affect the United States.
The Gulf states’ moves come after a diplomatic effort by non-Arab Shiite Iran to convince its Sunni Gulf neighbors to use their influence with Washington, amid growing concerns that Israel could target Iran’s oil production facilities .
At meetings this week, Iran warned Saudi Arabia that it could not guarantee the security of the Gulf kingdom’s oil facilities if Israel received any help in carrying out an attack, a senior Iranian official and an Iranian diplomat told Reuters.
Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst close to the Saudi royal court, said: “The Iranians have stated: ‘If the Gulf states open their airspace to Israel, it would be an act of war.’ But (Saudi Arabia) will not do that. allow anyone to use its airspace.”
The diplomat said Tehran had sent a clear message to Riyadh that its allies in countries such as Iraq or Yemen could respond if there was any regional support for Israel against Iran.
A possible Israeli attack was the focus of talks on Wednesday between Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, who was on a Gulf tour to drum up support, Gulf and Iranian sources said.
The Iranian minister’s visit, along with Saudi American communications at Defense Ministry level, is part of a coordinated effort to tackle the crisis, a Gulf source close to government circles told Reuters.
A person in Washington familiar with the discussions confirmed that Gulf officials had been in contact with U.S. counterparts to express concerns about the potential scale of Israel’s expected retaliation.
The White House declined comment when asked whether Gulf governments had asked Washington to ensure Israel’s response was measured. US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke on Wednesday about Israeli retaliation in a call that both sides described as positive.
Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy US intelligence officer for the Middle East and now at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington, said: “Gulf states’ concerns are likely to be a key talking point with Israeli counterparts in their efforts to convince Israel to take action. to undertake. carefully calibrated response.”
OIL AT RISK?
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, which is de facto led by Saudi Arabia, has enough spare oil capacity to offset any loss of Iranian supplies if an Israeli retaliation were to knock out some of the country’s facilities.
But much of that spare capacity is in the Gulf region, so if oil facilities in, say, Saudi Arabia or the UAE were also targeted, the world could face an oil supply problem.
Saudi Arabia has been wary of an Iranian attack on its oil plants since a 2019 attack on its Aramco (TADAWUL 🙂 oil field shut down more than 5% of global oil supplies. Iran denied involvement.
Riyadh has made a rapprochement with Tehran in recent years, but trust remains an issue. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE all host US military facilities or troops.
Concerns over oil facilities and the potential for a wider regional conflict were also at the center of talks between Emirati officials and their US counterparts, another Gulf source said.
In 2022, the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen fired missiles and drones at oil tankers near an oil refinery owned by the UAE’s state oil company ADNOC, claiming the attack.
“The Gulf States do not allow Israel to use their airspace. They are not allowing Israeli missiles through, and there is also hope that they will not attack the oil facilities,” the Gulf source said.
The three Gulf sources emphasized that Israel could direct attacks through Jordan or Iraq, but that using Saudi, UAE or Qatari airspace was off the table and strategically unnecessary.
Analysts also pointed out that Israel has other options, including mid-air refueling capabilities that would allow its fighter jets to fly over the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean, fly to the Gulf and then fly back.
‘MIDDLE OF A MISSILE WAR’
According to two senior Israeli officials, Israel will adjust its response and had not yet decided on Wednesday whether to attack Iran’s oil fields.
According to the officials, this option was one of several presented by the defense establishment to Israeli leaders.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on Wednesday: “Our attack will be deadly, precise and, above all, surprising. They will not understand what happened and how it happened. They will see the results.”
The three Gulf sources stated that Saudi Arabia, as a leading oil exporter along with its oil-producing neighbors – the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain – had a strong interest in de-escalating the situation.
“We will be in the middle of a missile war. There are serious concerns, especially if the Israeli strike hits Iranian oil facilities,” a second Gulf source said.
The three Gulf sources said an Israeli attack on Iran’s oil infrastructure would have a global impact, especially for China – Iran’s biggest oil customer – and also for Kamala Harris ahead of the November 5 presidential election, in which she faces Donald Trump.
“If oil prices rise to $120 a barrel, it would hurt both the US economy and Harris’ chances in the election. So they (Americans) will not allow the oil war to expand,” the first Gulf source said.
Gulf sources said protecting all oil installations remains a challenge despite having advanced missile and Patriot defense systems, so the primary approach remained diplomatic: signaling to Iran that the Gulf states are not a threat .
Bernard Haykel, a professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University, noted that Riyadh was vulnerable “because the Iranians can swarm those installations given the short distance to the mainland.”
