By Erwin Seba
HOUSTON (Reuters) – Colorado State University (CSU) weather forecasters on Tuesday increased the number of hurricanes expected in 2024 in the closely watched July update to their long-range forecast.
“Hurricane Beryl, a Category 5 deep tropical hurricane, is also likely to be a harbinger of a hyperactive season,” the forecast released Tuesday said.
At least 14 deaths have been blamed on Hurricane Beryl, which devastated Grenada and Jamaica in the Caribbean before barreling across Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula and then turning north to make final landfall in Texas on Monday, cutting off power for millions shut down and major oil ports were closed.
In the forecast released Tuesday, CSU meteorologists said they expect six major hurricanes, with winds above 111 miles per hour (178 kilometers per hour), out of 12 hurricanes of 25 named storms before the season ends on Nov. 30.
In an April 13 forecast, the CSU team predicted five major hurricanes out of 11 hurricanes out of 23 named storms.
A tropical storm has reached wind speeds of 63 km/h and becomes a hurricane when sustained winds reach 119 km/h. A Category 5 hurricane has sustained winds of at least 252 km/h.
An average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven of which lead to hurricanes and three to major cyclones.
The CSU forecasters cite two main reasons for above-average hurricane forecasts. The seas are hotter than normal and provide more energy to fuel tropical cyclones. Also the absence this year of an El Nino weather pattern, which was present in 2023. El Nino produces strong winds that scatter hurricanes.
“While early season storm activity in the western Atlantic Ocean tends to have little correlation with overall basin-wide activity, deep tropical hurricane activity in the tropical Atlantic and eastern Caribbean (as we saw with Beryl) is often associated with hyperactive seasons,” the forecast said. .
In a May forecast, U.S. government meteorologists said they expect between four and seven major hurricanes, in addition to the expected eight to 13 hurricanes, which could result from the expected 17 to 25 so-called tropical storms.
