By Michelle Conlin
NEW YORK (Reuters) -Four accounts on the crypto-based prediction market Polymarket, which placed big bets on former President Donald Trump winning the 2024 election and have been the subject of much online speculation, are owned by non- Americans or a non-American This was reported by a source familiar with the matter on Friday.
Opinion polls indicate a likely close match between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in the Nov. 5 vote. However, the odds on Polymarket vary, with Trump holding a strong lead with a 60% chance of winning, compared to Harris’ 40%.
The transaction was driven by four accounts that placed more than $30 million in bets, according to the source, confirming an earlier story in the Wall Street Journal.
Political pundits and social media users have wondered whether specific high-profile Americans could be behind these moves.
But Polymarket does not allow Americans to place US election bets on the exchange, and the source confirmed that Polymarket’s users are international. The source said the company certifies all its major merchants to ensure they don’t log in through VPNs to obscure which country they are in.
Reuters could not immediately determine whether the four accounts represent a single trader or several.
Given the size and impact of the bets, Polymarket is investigating the activity with outside experts, the person said, confirming the Wall Street Journal’s reporting. A $30 million bet on Trump on Polymarket would equal about 1% of the trading volume on the platform related to the presidential race.
Americans have faced severe restrictions on online gambling on US elections. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has previously rejected applications to offer contracts or derivatives that would allow Americans to bet on elections.
CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam said in a September 2023 statement that such event contracts would effectively turn the agency into an “election agent,” a task for which the CFTC had no mandate.
“It makes sense that the CFTC has the authority to combat fraud, manipulation and false reporting in the underlying commodity markets,” Behnam said at the time. “But it is impractical for the CFTC to fight them here in the underlying market – a political battle.”
Proponents argued that the contracts could be a valuable new financial tool to provide insight into the future.
In November 2023, Kalshi, another betting exchange, sued the CFTC over its ban on US election betting. A federal appeals court sided with Kalshi on October 2, clearing the way for Americans to begin trading in political races just a month before the election.
Kalshi has Trump at 57% and Harris at 43%.
In an emailed statement, Kalshi said: “Our position on the surge in Trump’s odds is that it is all part of normal market activity. Trump is simply gaining popularity, and prediction markets collect information from a broader audience at a faster pace than polls.”
The CFTC did not respond to requests for comment.
