(Reuters) – Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to average $76 a barrel in 2025 based on moderate crude surpluses and spare capacity at major producers, easing concerns about a possible disruption to Iranian supply, the company said in a note on Tuesday.
“Overall, we still view medium-term risks to our $70-85/bbl range as two-sided, but moderately downside on net, as downside price risks from high spare capacity and potentially broader trading rates outweigh upward price,” Goldman said. said.
The investment bank said there is a possibility that prices could rise towards the end of the year as it sees the time differences somewhat underpricing the physical tightness.
“Despite large global spare capacity and uninterrupted Iranian oil production to date, we do not think a supply glut in 2025 is a foregone conclusion,” Goldman analysts said.
The geopolitical risk premium is limited, they said, because tensions between Israel and Iran have not affected oil supplies from the region and because spare capacity is high among producers in OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, they said .
However, supply risks will remain as long as the Middle East conflict remains unresolved, and potential disruptions could tighten oil balances.
Oil prices settled higher for a second straight session on Tuesday, with Brent futures at $76.04, as traders played down hopes for a ceasefire in the Middle East and focused on signs of improving demand from China. [O/R]
