As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, Strategas analysts suggest the election will become a referendum on President Biden’s first term.
“Four years ago, the election was a referendum on Trump. Today, the election is a referendum on Biden,” analysts say.
They explain that presidents have historically struggled with reelection when voters view the election as a judgment on their first term. Successful re-election campaigns often frame the election as a choice between the incumbent party and a less favorable challenger.
The company notes that current polling shows more voters believe Trump could handle their economic situation better than Biden. This sentiment is reflected in the key swing states where Trump is taking the lead.
However, analysts argue that campaigns are dynamic, and Biden is adjusting his strategy to make the election a choice rather than a referendum.
The company says that in an effort to change the narrative, Biden is expected to highlight Trump’s criminal conviction, arguing that it makes him unfit to run for president. Moreover, they highlight Biden’s recent policy moves as part of his strategy.
“Democratic economists are reporting that Trump will be worse for inflation than Biden due to deficits, tariffs, Fed politicization and closing the border,” analysts say. ‘Will this work? In some cases, such as at the border, it may be too little, too late. In other cases, such as inflation, is an economic survey more powerful than how people feel? more important than the belief itself.”
Ultimately, the effectiveness of Biden’s strategy will depend on his ability to convince key swing voters that Trump would worsen current problems. As analysts note, “the president’s approval rating is the measure that will determine whether Biden will succeed in turning the election from a referendum to a choice with key swing voters.”
