By Kate Abnett, William James and Valerie Volcovici
DUBAI (Reuters) – Countries at the COP28 climate conference will consider calling for a formal phase-out of fossil fuels as part of the U.N. summit’s final deal to tackle global warming, according to a draft negotiating text was seen on Tuesday.
The proposal will spark heated debate among the nearly 200 countries during the two-week conference in Dubai, with some Western and climate-sensitive states pushing for the use of this language and many oil and gas producers keen to leave it out.
Research published Tuesday shows that global CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels are expected to reach a record high this year, fueling concerns among scientists that efforts to combat climate change will not be enough to avert its worst effects .
The draft of what could be COP28’s final agreement, released by the UN climate body on Tuesday, proposed “an orderly and just phase-out of fossil fuels” which, if adopted, would mark the first global agreement to achieve a to end the oil era.
On the main stage at COP28, the CEOs of several major energy companies made the case for oil and gas, highlighting their progress in areas such as reducing the greenhouse gas methane.
“We are big boys and we can do big things. We can get results and we will have to report them very soon,” said Jean Paul Prates, CEO of Brazilian state oil company Petrobras. “The energy transition will only be valid if it is a fair transition,” he added.
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An analysis of UN registration data published by Kick Big Polluters Out shows that at least 2,400 fossil fuel lobbyists have registered for this year’s summit. This is more than the number of delegates from the ten most climate-sensitive countries combined.
Climate activists organized several small protests against the presence of the fossil fuel industry.
The Marshall Islands, meanwhile, have unveiled a national plan to adapt to rising sea levels, an acknowledgment that the effects of warming are already hitting their coasts.
“While we hope for a world where the world delivers on the Paris Agreement’s promise to stem climate change, as an extremely climate-vulnerable country we must be realistic and honest about the difficult road ahead,” said Kathy Jetnil-Kijiner , president of the country. climate envoy.
NEGOTIATION TEXT
The draft text for a COP28 deal agreement contains three options for dealing with fossil fuels.
The first is “an orderly and equitable phase-out.” In UN parlance, the word “only” suggests that rich countries with a long history of burning fossil fuels would disappear most quickly.
The second calls for “accelerating efforts to continue phasing out fossil fuels.” And a third would be to make no mention of a phase-out at all.
The United States, the 27 European Union countries and climate-sensitive small island states are pushing for a phase-out of fossil fuels to achieve the deep carbon emissions cuts that scientists say are needed this decade.
Yet none of the world’s top oil and gas producing countries have plans to eventually stop drilling for those fuels, according to the Net Zero Tracker, an independent data consortium that includes the University of Oxford.
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“We are not talking about turning off the tap overnight,” said German climate envoy Jennifer Morgan. “What you see here is a real battle over which energy system of the future we will build together.”
Major manufacturers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, have opposed previous phase-out proposals.
David Waskow, director of the World Resources Institute’s international climate initiative, said he does not think a COP28 outcome was possible without a clear mandate to move away from global dependence on oil, gas and coal.
“I don’t think we will leave Dubai without clear language and clear direction on moving away from fossil fuels,” he added.
The draft text also includes language calling for scaling up carbon capture technology, which is likely to draw resistance from some countries concerned that such emerging technologies are being used to justify the continued use of fossil fuels.
EMISSIONS OF FOSSIL FUELS ARE RISING
On the sidelines of COP28, US special climate envoy John Kerry launched an international plan involving 35 countries to boost nuclear fusion, an emerging technology that would seek to harness the intense process that powers the sun.
“There is potential in nuclear fusion to revolutionize our world,” Kerry said.
Fusion is among a number of ambitious and sometimes unlikely ideas aimed at helping accelerate the decarbonization of the economy.
Countries are expected to emit a total of 36.8 billion tonnes of CO2 from fossil fuels in 2023, up 1.1% from last year’s record, according to the Global Carbon Budget report by scientists from more than 90 institutions .
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Emissions performance is pulling the world further away from preventing global warming of more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times, the report said.
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