By Gavin Maguire
LITTLETON, Colo. (Reuters) – Declines in power generation from wind farms, hydroelectric dams and nuclear reactors have forced the operator of Texas’ power grid – one of the largest energy systems in the United States – to increase its use and emissions of fossil fuels. far this year.
The increased use of air conditioners due to high temperatures has increased power consumption and prompted the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) to ask power generators to postpone or cancel planned outages this week.
But tight supplies of clean energy have forced ERCOT system operators to ramp up fossil fuel generation to balance system needs.
Through mid-April, ERCOT has increased coal-fired electricity generation by 5% over the same period in 2023, and production by 12%, according to data collected by LSEG.
That higher production has increased ERCOT’s total fossil fuel generation by 10% compared to the same period in 2023.
In contrast, ERCOT generation from clean energy sources increased by only 3% through April 15 compared to the same period in 2023, reflecting a 23% decline in hydropower generation, a 3% decline in wind power and a decline in 4% in nuclear energy. generation.
Solar power generation has helped address some of the clean energy shortfalls, rising a robust 60% through April 15 compared to the same period in 2023.
But largely flat production from all clean sources means fossil fuels remain the main source of energy in the Texas electricity generation system so far this year.
SHARE FLIP
The decline in production from wind, hydro and nuclear sources has caused clean energy to lose its share of the ERCOT generation mix compared to a year ago.
Through mid-April, clean energy sources accounted for 49% of total ERCOT generation, up from 51% in the same period in 2023.
Although the decline in clean generation this year is only 2 percentage points, it means that fossil fuels will again be the main source of electricity for the Texas power system so far in 2024, after playing a minority role during the same period in 2023.
EMISSIONS IMPACT
Increased use of coal and gas in electricity generation has also increased emissions in the power sector so far this year.
According to energy think tank Ember, 18.4 million tons of carbon dioxide were emitted by Texas energy producers in January.
That total is 40% more than the 13.1 million tons discharged in the same month in 2023, when power companies were able to deploy greater amounts of power from clean sources.
As temperatures continue to rise across Texas, local homes, schools and businesses will further expand the use of air conditioners, possibly 24 hours a day.
That, in turn, will further strain the state’s energy system and could result in even greater use of fossil fuels in electricity generation.
There will also be a greater output of solar energy available to ERCOT generators because solar output tends to peak during the high demand period of summer.
But because solar energy production stops completely at night, the contribution of solar energy to the total generation mix will probably be limited to about 8% to 10% of the total.
Furthermore, wind energy production in Texas tends to reach its seasonal lows during the summer due to lower wind speeds, so total clean energy generation could in fact approach its annual low just as total energy demand reaches its peak.
That in turn suggests that energy companies will remain heavily dependent on fossil fuels for electricity in the short to medium term, even as efforts to transition energy systems away from fossil fuels will continue in the longer term.
