On Monday, Macquarie strategists forecast a rise in US crude inventories and a significant increase in product inventories for the week ending January 10.
Analysts at Macquarie estimate that US crude oil inventories rose by 3.0 million barrels, a shift from the previously expected 4.3 million barrels and in contrast to the week’s decline of 1.0 million barrels which ended on January 3.
The forecast includes a decline in crude production from refineries by 0.4 million barrels per day (MBD) and a modest decline in net imports, with exports falling by 0.2 MBD and imports by 0.3 MBD.
The strategists noted that the timing of cargo arrivals could add variability to this week’s rough balance and the impact of year-end timing effects could also add to the volatility in the metrics.
In addition, Macquarie expects a moderate increase in implied domestic supply, including output, adjustments and transfers, of 0.4 MBD, following a weaker figure last week.
However, they also warn that winter weather could affect this estimate. In addition, they expect a small increase in Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory of 0.5 million barrels this week.
On the products side, Macquarie forecasts a significant increase in gasoline inventories of 4.4 million barrels. Distillate and jet fuel inventories are also expected to rise, by 1.3 million barrels and 1.9 million barrels respectively.
Total implied demand for these three products is expected to be approximately 13.7 MBD for the week ending January 10.
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