By Elena Fabrichnaya and Gleb Bryanski
MOSCOW (Reuters) – The Russian ruble is expected to continue changing hands at around 100 per U.S. dollar in early 2025 and gradually weaken to 108 by the end of the year, a Reuters poll of 10 economists showed on Friday.
The ruble fell to its lowest level in about 2.5 years in November after the US imposed new financial sanctions on Russia, but has since regained some ground after the central bank intervened to support the ruble.
Most analysts believe that the 100 mark against the dollar is the new equilibrium level as the situation with foreign trade transactions, disrupted by sanctions, stabilizes, while other factors will support the ruble.
Analysts noted that the first quarter of the year is traditionally good for the ruble, as imports, overseas travel and foreign debt payments decline.
The ruble fell to 103.7 against the US dollar on Friday after the central bank announced it would withdraw some support for the currency in the first working week of 2025 after the New Year holidays.
Analysts predicted the central bank would keep its benchmark interest rate at 21% through the first half of 2025, after surprising markets on December 20 by leaving rates unchanged.
“We expect the central bank to keep the policy rate at 21% at the February 14 meeting. We believe that lending will continue to slow, in line with the regulator’s forecast for 2025,” said Mikhail Vasiliev of Sovcombank.
Russia’s central bank has raised its key interest rate to the highest level in more than two decades in an effort to curb inflation, which analysts expect to reach 9.8% this year, and to counter economic overheating caused by excessive government spending .
Analysts estimate GDP growth at 3.9% in 2024, slightly above their previous forecast of 3.8%. In 2025, economic growth is expected to slow sharply to 1.6% due to central bank monetary tightening.
Analysts expect inflation to fall to 6.6% by the end of next year, closer to the regulator’s target of 4%, leaving room for the central bank to cut its benchmark interest rate to 18%.
