Investing.com — Gold is expected to maintain its safe-haven appeal into 2025 as heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainties, coupled with strong central bank buying, are expected to support prices, ANZ analysts said.
As headwinds from a strong US dollar and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts persist, ANZ expects moderate returns of around 10% in the yellow metal, with prices potentially reaching record levels of $2,900 an ounce next year, ANZ analysts said in a note .
Geopolitical risks – such as rising tensions in the Middle East and challenges arising from Trump’s trade policies – are likely to keep gold demand buoyant, analysts said.
ANZ’s outlook also highlights the role of China and India in driving demand. China’s economic stimulus measures and the volatile yuan are expected to boost investment demand for gold bars, coins and ETFs. Meanwhile, gold consumption in India should remain solid, supported by growing incomes and reduced import duties, with jewelery demand expected to rise by 9%, according to ANZ.
On the supply side, central banks will remain active buyers, albeit at a slower pace. ANZ predicts annual gold purchases by central banks will reach around 850 tonnes in 2025, up from 950 tonnes in 2024, as countries including Russia, China and India stockpile.
ANZ analysts said gold could face resistance at $2,780-$2,790 per ounce, but could recover towards $2,900 if these levels are breached. However, price momentum is expected to be highly dependent on US monetary policy and geopolitical developments.
This steady but cautious optimism underlines gold’s role as a hedge against rising macroeconomic risks and provides a “modest glow” in the year ahead.
