Investing.com – The oil market suffers from weak sentiment in 2025, but Barclays (LON:) sees the possibility that the market is too negative and that risks could be tilted to the upside.
At 09:25 ET (14:25 GMT), the benchmark contract was down 0.9% at $71.41 per barrel, and is expected to end the week about 2% lower.
“The prospect of an oversupply of oil in the oil market by 2025 is not a backdrop likely to encourage new investors in energy stocks,” Barclays analysts said in a note. “Still, there is a possibility that the market is too negative about a clear oversupply of oil, and that the picture supports higher prices after 2025.”
Oil market sentiment remains weak through 2025, with both our forecasts and most agencies showing a surplus even without OPEC+ reversing cuts, Barclays said.
This is leading to significant market discussion about the potential of $50-60/bbl oil by 2025.
“We believe Brent prices will remain above $70/bbl for longer than below as the supply-demand dynamics have been well highlighted for some time,” Barclays added.
Overall, it is entirely possible that underlying supply and demand balances will tighten versus expectations in 2025, which will support oil prices, especially as balances already look tighter in 2026, Barclays said.
But the level of OPEC+ spare capacity is likely to limit upside potential, barring a significant, uncompensated decline in Iranian volumes.
