By Erwin Seba
HOUSTON (Reuters) – U.S. government forecasters said on Thursday that up to seven major hurricanes could form in an “extraordinary” 2024 Atlantic hurricane season that starts June 1.
In a forecast for May that is higher than that before the record-breaking season of 2005, which spawned Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, forecasters expect between four and seven major hurricanes. These events are among an expected eight to 13 hurricanes, which could be spawned by an expected 17 to 25 so-called tropical storms, said Rick Spinrad, administrator of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
An average hurricane season produces 14 named storms (wind speeds of at least 40 miles per hour), seven of which become hurricanes (wind speeds of more than 70 miles per hour) and three become “majors,” with winds of more than 115 miles per hour . 178 km/h).
Warm sea temperatures and decreasing wind shear at the height of the hurricane season in August and September are expected to contribute to more and stronger storms this year, forecasters said.
“This forecast has higher margins than 2005,” lead forecaster Matthew Rosencrans said in a webcast at a news conference from Washington, DC. “These are the highest margins we have ever predicted.”
In 2023, there were three major hurricanes that formed among seven hurricanes and twenty named storms, the fourth largest number of named storms since 1950. The most damaging, Idalia, tore up the west coast of Florida and made landfall as a hurricane of category 3.
NOAA’s forecast is being closely watched by coastal communities and energy companies.
The widely viewed forecast from Colorado State University, issued in April, predicted five major hurricanes out of a total of 11 hurricanes included in a projection for 23 named tropical storms.
The US Gulf of Mexico accounts for 15% of total oil production and 5% of dry production, and nearly 50% of the country’s oil refining capacity is located on its coasts.
NOAA’s forecast is consistent with other initial outlooks. Private forecaster AccuWeather has said there is a 10-15% chance of 30 or more named storms in the 2024 hurricane season, which runs through November 30.
